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Welch Consulting Employment Index Rises in May

Posted by Super User
on 06 June 2019

The Welch Consulting Employment Index rose from 102.1 to 102.2 in May, just off of a recent high of 102.5 set in January.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004. 

Over the past 12 months the Index has risen from 101.6 to 102.2. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.6% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index rose from 102.1 in November to 102.2 currently. The rate of change over the past year is slower than the overall trend for the last 3 years of an increase of about 1.0% per year. The most recent six months shows an even more significant slowdown in the rate of employment growth.

In May the index for women fell while the index for men rose. The index for women fell to 105.1, close to its all-time high of 105.5 seen in December, January, and February. The index for women is up from 104.1 a year ago. The index for men rose to 99.9, close to recent highs of 100.1 seen in January and February. The index for men is up 0.3 points from its year ago value of 99.6. Over the last three years the index for women is up 3.9 points while the index for men is up 2.3 points.

 

Welch Employment Index May 2019

Welch Employment Index by Gender May 2019

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.