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08 May 2015

The Welch Consulting Employment Index shows a small decline in April, down 0.1 point from March, to 98.2.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.  A constant index from February to March means that full-time equivalent employment grew at the same rate as the adult population in the past month.  The Welch Index is about 1.0% higher than it was one year ago.  Full-time equivalent employment has been increasing about 1.0% faster than adult population growth over the past two years (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population).  The Welch Index of 98.2 indicates that full-time equivalent employment is 1.8% below its level in the base year of 2004, after adjusting for population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force.  

The Welch Consulting Employment Index for women held steady at 99.9.  The Welch Index for men fell to 96.9 from 97.0, reversing the prior month’s increase. The men’s index and the women’s index have increased by similar amounts in the past year - 1.1% for men and 0.9% for women. While women have recovered most of the job losses suffered during the recession of 2008 and 2009, the men’s index is still 3.1% below its level in the base year of 2004.

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03 Apr 2015

The Welch Consulting Employment Index held steady at 98.3 in March.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.  A constant index from February to March means that full-time equivalent employment grew at the same rate as the adult population in the past month. 

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18 Mar 2015

This is a guest post on www.forbes.com's Modeled Behavior column. by Stephen G. Bronars, Ph.D., a Senior Economist at Welch Consulting, Ph.D. in Economics from University of Chicago, opinions are his own.

Michael Brown’s tragic death, violent protests including the shootings of police officers, a Justice Department investigation describing a pattern and practice of discrimination in the Ferguson police department, and the resignation of six city officials, including the police chief, have focused attention on racial divisions in this St. Louis suburb.  The Justice Department investigation alleges that the lack of diversity in the Ferguson police department, only 4 of 54 commissioned officers are African American compared to 67% of the town’s population, undermines the community’s trust of law enforcement. Read More

05 Mar 2015

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased from 98.2 to 98.3 in February.  The index increased because full-time employment, as measured by the Current Population Survey, registered a seasonally-adjusted increase of 123,000 workers between January and February.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.  

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06 Feb 2015

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased from 98 to 98.2 in January.  The index increased as seasonally adjusted full-time employment, as measured by the Current Population Survey, increased by 437,000 between December and January, as part-time employment declined by 269,000.  Employment gains were the largest for younger workers, as employment increased by 164,000 (1.2%) for workers age 20-24 and 220,000 (0.7%) for workers age 25-34.

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09 Jan 2015

The index increased because employment, as measured by the Current Population Survey, registered a seasonally-adjusted increase of 111,000 workers between November and December.  

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05 Dec 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index dropped slightly from 98 to 97.9 in November.  The index fell because employment, as measured by the Current Population Survey, registered a seasonally-adjusted increase of just 4,000 workers between October and November.  

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07 Nov 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased from 97.5 to 98.0 between September and October.

This increase is the largest one month increase in the index since 2001.  The index rose sharply as the official unemployment rate edged down to 5.8% and full-time employment has increased by over one million over the past two months.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.  The Welch Index is about 2.1% higher than it was one year ago.  In other words employment grew about 2.1% faster than the rate of growth in the adult population over the past year.  The last time the Index was 98.0 was January of 2009, President Obama’s first month in office.

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03 Oct 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased from 97.3 to 97.5 between August and September as the official unemployment rate fell below 6% and full-time employment increased by 671,000 – the largest one month increase in two and a half years.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment, adjusting for population growth and the aging of the workforce.

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09 Sep 2014

The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.0% to 6.1% in the past three years, but the official jobless rate under-estimates labor market slack because jobless workers who have given up looking for work are not counted as unemployed.  Five years into an economic recovery today’s unemployment rate is historically high, after accounting for the changing demographics of the U.S. labor force.  While the unemployment rate is just 0.1% higher than it was 35 years ago, when President Jimmy Carter had an approval rating of just 33%, this difference understates the weakness of today’s labor market in comparison to 6% unemployment rates in the 1970’s and 1980’s.

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05 Sep 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased slightly, from 97.2 to 97.3, between June and July as the official unemployment rate decreased slightly from 6.2% to 6.1%.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, full-time equivalent employment has been roughly constant over the past five months.  The Welch Index is about 1.1% higher than it was one year ago.  In the past year full-time employment has increased by about 2.2 million, while part-time employment has declined by 100,000.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

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05 Aug 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased slightly, from 97.1 to 97.2, between June and July.  While the official unemployment rate increased slightly from 6.1% to 6.2%, full-time employment increased by 285,000 in the household survey in the past month.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, full-time equivalent employment has been steady since March.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

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