Welch Consulting Employment Index Pulls Back in March

The Welch Consulting Employment Index plummeted 1.7 points in March, falling from 103.3 to 101.6. This is a fall from the record high of 103.4 set in January, to a level not seen since August 2018.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the Index has now fallen from 102.4 to 101.6. The decrease in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been shrinking relative to the growth of the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.8% slower than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index fell from 102.9 in September to 101.6 currently. All of the decline in the past year has occurred in the past month. The average rate of change over the past three years is an increase of about 0.4% per year.

In March the indices for women and men both fell by similar amounts. The index for women fell 1.8 points from 107.1 to 105.3. The index for men fell 1.7 points from 100.3 to 98.6. Over the last three years the index for women is up 2.0 points while the index for men is up 0.3 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Jora Stixrud and Valentín Estévez will be participating in a Compensation Roundtable co-hosted by the NILG and the OFCCP on February 18

Jora Stixrud and Valentín Estévez will be part of a roundtable co-hosted by the NILG and OFCCP on statistical methods and transparency in OFCCP compensation reviews."

The discussion will cover:

  • Enhancement of OFCCP’s approach to compensation reviews resulting from Directive 2018-05
  • Experts’ recommendations for improving provisions and application of the Directive
  • Exchange of opinions on how OFCCP and practitioners can best identify pay disparities requiring remediation
  • The panel discussion will be moderated by NILG Chair, Paul McGovern and NILG Advisory Council member Valerie Hoffman of Seyfarth Shaw LLP.

You may attend either in person or online via WebEx


Welch Consulting Employment Index Reaches New High in January

The Welch Consulting Employment Index rose 0.1 points to 103.4 in January. This modest gain put it at new highs once again, something seen in many recent months.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the Index has risen from 102.4 to 103.4. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.0% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index rose from 102.5 in July to 103.4 currently. Nearly all of the growth in the past year has occurred in the past six months. The rate of change over the past year is in line with the trend for the last 3 years of an increase of about 1.1% per year.

In January the index for women rose, as did the index for men. The index for women hit a record high of 107.0, up from 106.9. The index for women is up from 105.4 a year ago. The index for men increased from 100.3 to 100.5, also a record high. Over the last three years the index for women is up 5.0 points while the index for men is up 1.9 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Reaches New High in December

The Welch Consulting Employment Index rose 0.2 points to 103.3 in December. This modest gain put it at new highs once again, something seen in many recent months.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the Index has risen from 102.1 to 103.3. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.2% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index rose from 102.5 in June to 103.3 currently. The growth rate in the most recent 6 months is stronger than the growth rate of the preceding 6 months. The rate of change over the past year is in line with the trend for the last 3 years of an increase of about 1.2% per year.

In December the index for women rose, while the index for men held steady. The index for women returned to its recent high of 106.9, up from 106.7. The index for women is up from 105.5 a year ago. The index for men held steady at the recent high of 100.3. The index for men is up 0.9 points from its year ago value of 99.4. Over the last three years the index for women is up 5.2 points while the index for men is up 2.3 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.