Welch Consulting Employment Index Holds Steady in September

In September The Welch Consulting Employment Index held steady at 99.6, which it reached in August, up from 99.4 in July.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 99.6 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is 0.4% below its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 98.5 to 99.6. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.1% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 99.5 in March 2016 to 99.6 currently – a slight increase of 0.1%. This rate of change is below the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.0% increase per year.

The index for women diverged in September from that for men. Women saw a modest increase in employment in August, rising 0.1 from 101.8 to 101.9. The index for men fell by the same amount, from 97.9 to 97.8. The index for women, like the combined index, is at its highest level in over four years. the index for men sits just below its recent peak. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 0.8 points and the index for women has risen 1.6 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Valentin Estevez to speak to Dade County Bar Association

Valentín Estévez, Ph.D. will speak to the Dade County Bar Association on Tuesday, October 18, 2016.

His presentation will cover the topic of "Evaluating Your Pay Practices After the Proposed Changes to the EEO-1 Report". For more information and registration information, visit the Dade County Bar Association Labor & Employment Committee website.


Hyowook Chiang to speak to Beverly Hills Bar Association

Hyowook Chiang, Ph.D. will speak to the Beverly Hills Bar Association on Thursday, September 22nd, 2016.

The Labor and Employment Law Section of the Beverly Hills Bar Association presents "California's New Fair Pay Act: Practical Steps for Bringing, Defending and Avoiding These Claims." Moderated by Eve Wagner, Esq., the panel will share perspectives from expert economist Hyowook Chiang, Ph.D., and attorneys Stephen Danz, Esq., and Christopher Olmsted, Esq. For more information about this event, or to register online, visit the BHBA registration website.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Continues Advance in August

In August The Welch Consulting Employment Index continued its upward trend, reaching its highest level in over four years as it hit 99.6 in August, up from 99.4 in July.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 99.6 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is 0.4% below its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 98.5 to 99.6. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.1% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 99.3 in February 2016 to 99.6 currently – an increase of 0.3%. This rate of change is below the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.1% increase per year.

Women and men both saw a solid increase in employment in August, each rising 0.2. The index for men rose from 97.7 in July to 97.9 in August while the index for women rose from 101.6 to 101.8. Like the combined index, both are at their highest level in over four years. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 0.8 points and the index for women has risen 1.1 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Continues Rising in July

The Welch Consulting Employment Index continued its upward trend of recent years, rising to 99.4 in July from 99.3 in June.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 99.4 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is 0.6% below its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 98.3 to 99.4. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.1% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 99.2 in January 2016 to 99.4 currently – an increase of 0.2%. This rate of change is below the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.0% increase per year.

When broken out by gender, women saw a strong increase in employment in July but men had a slight dip. The index for men fell 0.1 points in July, from 97.8 to 97.7, though this was still above the May level of 97.6. The index for women rose from 101.2 to 101.6, the highest it has been in recent years. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 0.9 points and the index for women has risen 1.4 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Donald Deere to speak at ACI Employment Discrimination Conference

Donald R. Deere, Ph.D. is scheduled to speak at the American Conference Institutes’ Employment Discrimination conference in Chicago July 28th-29th.

Donald will be speaking on a panel alongside Sheila Engelmeier with Engelmeier & Umanah, P.A., and Jenny Gassman-Pines with Greene Espel PLLP. Together they will discuss:

  • Examining the latest EEOC strides towards effecting tougher rules protecting pregnant workers
  • Taking a look at the developments following Young v. UPS and the aftermath of the EEOC’s latest pregnancy discrimination guidance
  • Scrutiny of leave policies for pregnant workers
  • Managing leaves of absence issues in the pregnancy context
  • The latest accommodation claims relating to reasonable accommodation of employees with pregnancy-related medical conditions
  • Efforts to extend the reach of the ADA’s reasonable accommodation provisions to cover pregnant employees who are experiencing normal/healthy pregnancies — where are the courts coming out on this?
  • Best practices for avoiding and defending against claims of pregnancy discrimination in the face of heightened scrutiny
  • Proving that pregnancy wasn’t the reason for the adverse decision
  • What states are following EEOC suit and passing laws regarding pregnancy accommodations? What are the trends being seen?
  • Family Responsibilities Discrimination claims under Title VII, the FMLA, the ADA and beyond; strategies for defending these claims and pitfalls to avoid

For more information regarding this event or other events like it, please visit the ACI website.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Bounces Back in June

After hitting a two-month slow patch, the Welch Consulting Employment Index is recovering, though still below its recent high hit in March. The index is at 99.3, just shy of the 99.5 seen in March and above the 99.1 seen in May.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 99.3 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is 0.7% below its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 98.2 to 99.3. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.1% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 99.0 in December 2015 to 99.3 currently – an increase of 0.3%. This rate of change is just below the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.0% increase per year.

When broken out by gender, men and women both saw an increase in employment in June. The index for men rose 0.2 points in June, from 97.6 to 97.8, while the index for women rose from 101.1 to 101.2, sitting just below the March peak of 101.4. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 1.2 points and the index for women has risen 0.9 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Falls in May

The Welch Consulting Employment Index is continuing its retreat from the level it hit in March. While the index has fallen to 99.1 in May from the recent peak of 99.5 in March, it currently remains above the 2015 year-end value of 99.0.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 99.1 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is 0.9% below its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 98.5 to 99.1. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.6% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 98.6 in November 2015 to 99.1 currently – an increase of 0.5%. This rate of change is in line with the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.0% increase per year.

When broken out by gender, men saw a decline in employment in May, while women had a small increase. The index for men fell 0.2 points in May, from 97.8 to 97.6, while the index for women rose from 101.0 to 101.1, reversing April’s decline. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 0.5 points and the index for women has risen 0.8 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Welch Consulting Sponsors OCBA Labor & Employment Symposium

Welch Consulting is a proud sponsor of OCBA Labor & Employment Symposium on Saturday, June 11th. Welch Consulting Senior Economist, Amy Aukstikalnis, Ph.D. will be on hand, representing Welch Consulting. Early Registration is available on the OCBA website, through June 15th.

INTRO  1 Hour CLE
 
  • WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE THEY THINKING? A PEEK INTO THE FAIR EMPLOYMENT AND HOUSING COUNCIL
    Patti Perez, Esq., Ogletree Deakins and Member of the Fair Employment and Housing Council
 
MORNING BREAKOUT SESSIONS 1 Hour CLE
  • Breaking News: Developments in Wage & Hour Law
    Javier Rivera-Carbone, Esq., Javier Rivera-Carbone, PC
    Joshua N. Lange, Esq., Rastegar Law Group, APC
    Wendy Sugg. Esq., Troutman Sanders LLP 
  • From Fighting Words to Fisticuffs: What to do about Violence in the Workplace
    Nicole A. Nguyen, Esq., Sessions & Kimball, LLP (Moderator)
    Heidi L. DeGroot, Esq., Sessions & Kimball, LLP
    Francis T. Donohue, Esq., Voss, Cook & Thel, LLP
    Manny Tau, Psy.D 
  • Yours, Mine or Ours? Recent Updates on Joint Employer and Independent Contractor Misclassification Issues in California
    Ryan Saba, Esq., Rosen Saba, LLP
    Kevin Ruf, Esq., Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP
 
KEYNOTE LUNCHEON  1.0 HOUR CLE
 
  • Case Law Updates In Labor and Employment Law
    Hon. Ming W. Chin, Associate Justice, California Supreme Court
    Hon. Rebecca A. Wiseman (Ret.), Associate Justice, Court of Appeal, 5th District
 
EARLY AFTERNOON BREAKOUT SESSIONS 1.25 Hour CLE
 
  • Employee Psychological Issues, Plaintiff and Defense Perspectives
    Mike Jewell, Esq., Law Office of Michael E. Jewell, APLC (Moderator)
    James McDonald, Esq., Fisher & Phillips, LLP
    Rose Amezcua-Moll, Esq., Amezcua-Moll & Associates, PC
    Dennis Greenberger, Ph.D.

  • The Rising Tide of PAGA
    Kashif Haque, Esq., Aegis Law Firm (Moderator)
    George Abele, Esq., Paul Hastings
    Louis M. Marlin, Esq., JAMS
    Matthew Theriault, Esq., Capstone Lawyers 
  • How to Win at Mediation
    Michael C. Robinson, Esq., Robinson Employment Law (Moderator)
    Hon. David C. Velasquez, Ret., Judicate West
    Hon. James P. Gray, Ret., ADR Services, Inc
    Lynne Bassis, Esq., ADR Services, Inc. 
LATER AFTERNOON BREAKOUT SESSIONS 1 Hour CLE
 
  • Seeing Through the Smoke: Marijuana’s Increasing Impact on the Workplace
    Ron S. Brand, Esq., Jackson Tidus, A Law Corporation
    Lance Rogers, Esq.

  • Litigating Employment Claims Against Public Entities
    William M. Crosby, Esq., The Law Offices of William M. Crosby
    Barbara Raileanu, Esq., Woodruff, Spradlin & Smart, APC
    Daniel K. Spradlin, Esq., Woodruff, Spradlin & Smart, APC 
  • New Developments in Discrimination, Retaliation & Harassment Law
    Neil Pedersen, Esq., Pedersen McQueen, APLC
    Julie Trotter, Esq., Call & Jensen

 

Cancellation Policy:
No refunds after June 8, 2016.