Welch Consulting Employment Index Holds Steady in July

The Welch Consulting Employment Index held steady at 102.4 in July, near the recent high of 102.5 set in January.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the Index has risen from 101.8 to 102.4. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.6% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index fell from 102.5 in January to 102.4 currently. The rate of change over the past year is modestly slower than the overall trend for the last 3 years of an increase of 1.0% per year. The most recent six months are showing a slight decline in the employment index.

In July the index for women fell while the index for men rose. The index for women fell just 0.1 point from 105.4 to 105.3, still near its all-time high of 105.5 seen in December, January, and February. The index for women is up from 104.7 a year ago. The index for men held rose 0.3 point to 100.2, its highest value in recent years. The index for men is up 0.8 points from its year ago value of 99.4. Over the last three years the index for women is up 3.9 points while the index for men is up 2.4 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Continues its Rise in June

The Welch Consulting Employment Index rose from 102.2 to 102.4 in June, near the recent high of 102.5 set in January.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the Index has risen from 101.6 to 102.4. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.8% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index rose from 102.1 in December to 102.4 currently. The rate of change over the past year is modestly slower than the overall trend for the last 3 years of an increase of about 1.0% per year. The most recent six months shows an even more significant slowdown in the rate of employment growth.

In June the index for women rose while the index for men held steady. The index for women rose from 105.1 to 105.4, close to its all-time high of 105.5 seen in December, January, and February. The index for women is up from 104.5 a year ago. The index for men held steady at 99.9, close to the recent high of 100.1 seen in January and February. The index for men is up 0.6 points from its year ago value of 99.3. Over the last three years the index for women is up 4.3 points while the index for men is up 2.0 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Rises in May

he Welch Consulting Employment Index rose from 102.1 to 102.2 in May, just off of a recent high of 102.5 set in January.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the Index has risen from 101.6 to 102.2. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.6% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index rose from 102.1 in November to 102.2 currently. The rate of change over the past year is slower than the overall trend for the last 3 years of an increase of about 1.0% per year. The most recent six months shows an even more significant slowdown in the rate of employment growth.

In May the index for women fell while the index for men rose. The index for women fell to 105.1, close to its all-time high of 105.5 seen in December, January, and February. The index for women is up from 104.1 a year ago. The index for men rose to 99.9, close to recent highs of 100.1 seen in January and February. The index for men is up 0.3 points from its year ago value of 99.6. Over the last three years the index for women is up 3.9 points while the index for men is up 2.3 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


On June 8, Amy Aukstikalnis and Welch Consulting will sponsor a one-day seminar for the OCBA

Amy Aukstiklanis, Ph.D. and Principal at Welch Consulting will sponsor a one-day seminar, 2019 Labor and Employment Symposium.

Register online at http://www.ocbar.org


New EEO-1 Form Requires W-2 Pay Data and Hours Worked

Companies with 100 or more employees are now required to submit pay and hours information to the EEOC as part of Component 2 of the New EEO-1 form. The deadline for submitting both calendar year 2017 and 2018 data is September 30th, 2019. Welch Consulting can assist with all aspects of complying with this new requirement. Please contact us for more information info@welchcon.com


Welch Consulting Employment Index Declines in April

The Welch Consulting Employment Index retreated to 102.1 in April, down from recent highs of 102.5 in January.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the Index has risen from 101.3 to 102.1. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.8% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index rose from 101.9 in October to 102.1 currently. The rate of change over the past year is just under the overall trend for the last 3 years of an increase of about 1.0% per year. The most recent six months show a slower rate of employment growth.

In April the index for women and the index for men both fell. The index for women held fell to 105.3, still near its all-time high of 105.5 seen in December, January, and February. The index for women is up from 103.7 a year ago. The index for men fell to 99.6, close to recent highs of 100.1. The index for men is up 0.3 points from its year ago value of 99.3. Over the last three years the index for women is up 4.3 points while the index for men is up 1.9 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


On May 16, Valentin Estévez will speak at the North Texas Industry Liaison Group

Valentin Estévez, Ph.D. and Managing Director at Welch Consulting and Meredith Mills Gregston, Esq., of Duane Morris LLP will present to members of the North Texas Industry Liaison Group. The seminar, Since We Are Talking About Pay Equity... Leveraging Your OFCCP Compliance Efforts to Examine Pay Equity and Pay Gap Concerns.

The OFCCP is far from being the only party investigating whether your workplace is free from compensation discrimination.  Some government contractors also have to deal with pay discrimination lawsuits, activist investors, and other federal, state, and country-specific pay equity regulations.  In this seminar, we will examine strategies for leveraging your OFCCP compliance efforts to assess your pay equity and pay gap situation more generally.  We will discuss:

  • The effect of the recent OFCCP compensation directives.
  • Major players, trends, and developments in the pay equity movement (e.g., the EEOC’s data collection tool).
  • Pay equity v. pay gap studies.
  • Recommendations for addressing pay equity and pay gap concerns

RSVP to Christine Avila at northtxilg@gmail.com


Joshua Mitchell will speak at the 2019 Colorado Labor & Employment Law Conference in Denver

Joshua Mitchell, Ph.D. and Senior Economist at Welch Consulting will speak at the 2019 Colorado Labor & Employment Law Conference on April 25th in Denver, Colorado. He will speak on Pay Data in Your EEO-1: What the EEOC Wants, How to Compile It, and What it Might Show.

The EEOC now has a green light to require large employers to file extensive payroll information along with their EEO-1 reports. In this session, Josh Mitchell and Bill Wright from Sherman & Howard will describe the information the EEOC wants, how employers can collect the information, and what the information might show about discrimination in the workplace. While Dr. Mitchell was a Senior Economist at the U.S. Census Bureau, his research used large datasets including W-2 tax records to analyze economic trends by age and gender. Be prepared for next year’s EEO-1!

To register CLICK HERE https://web.cvent.com/event/7fb9a0be-5842-4f1a-94f5-dd79de5eab39/regProcessStep1?RefId=Website&rp=0fa52334-d684-4ff9-8d70-037c83bcaea8


Welch Consulting Employment Index Holds Steady in March

The Welch Consulting Employment Index held the 102.4 level in March, sitting near the highest levels seen in a decade of 102.5.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. An Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the Index has risen from 101.2 to 102.4. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.2% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the Index rose from 101.7 in September to 102.4 currently. The rate of change over the past year and past 6 months is on track with the overall trend for the last 3 years of an increase of about 1.0% per year.

In March the index for women dipped down from its all-time high of 105.5 to 105.4. This is up from 103.5 a year ago. The index for men fell to 99.9 from 101.1, the highest the index for men has been since June 2008. The index for men is up 0.5 points from its year ago value of 99.4. Over the last three years the index for women is up 3.9 points while the index for men is up 2.0 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Ted Anderson will speak on April 24 at the ACC 11th Annual In-House Counsel Conference

G. Edward (Ted) Anderson, Ph.D., Senior Economist and Principal will speak at the Association of Corporate Counsel’s 11th Annual In-House Counsel Conference on April 24 in Philadelphia. The topic is Ensuring Pay Equity: A Practical Guide to Address Urgent Issues Employment & Labor. The panel will include Michael Hanlon, Partner, Cozen O’Connor and Rose Isardy, Senior Counsel from Entercom.

Why do we see male/female pay differences, and what should we do about it? More and more states have been paying greater attention to pay equity in workplaces. Perhaps you have heard that your competitors are being sued for alleged pay discrimination based on gender. As a result, you have become quite interested in conducting a pay audit. We will talk about how to proceed with such an audit, discussing potential pay equity issues using hypothetical data. Attendees will discuss potential problems that they have discovered and what they have done to address these issues. We will discuss potential ways to adjust pay rates for a group of employees and times when no pay adjustments are advised. In addition, we will discuss why pay adjustments have different impacts on the overall pay differences between men and women.

To register https://www.acc.com/education-events/2019/11th-annual-house-counsel-conference