Amy Aukstikalnis to speak to Orange County Bar Association February 14 2017

Welch Consulting Senior Economist, Amy Aukstikalnis, Ph.D. to speak to Orange County Bar Association on Tuesday, February 14th.

The Labor and Employment Law Section of the OCBA presents “Evaluating Equal Pay Under the California Fair Pay Act & Beyond: What Every Employment Lawyer/In-House Counsel Needs To Know” with panelists Amy M. Aukstikalnis, Ph.D. and Rebecca L. Springer, Esq. For more information about this event or to register online, visit the OCBA registration website.

Registration is available on the OCBA website.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Climbs in January

The Welch Consulting Employment Index hit 100.0 in January, up from 99.6 in December. This is the highest value for the Index since October 2008.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 100.0 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is the same as its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 99.2 to 100.0. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population. Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.8% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 99.5 in July 2016 to 100.0 currently – a moderate increase of 0.5%. This rate of change over the past 6 months and over the past year is a bit lower than the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.1% increase per year.

The change in the index for women was again weaker in January than that for men. The index for women held steady at 101.7. The index for men jumped from 97.9 to 98.5, its biggest increase since November 2013. The index for women is 0.3 points below its October 2016 peak. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 0.8 points and the index for women has risen 0.6 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey). The data reported for a given month is generally from the calendar week that contains the 12th day of the month. The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004. Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Welch Consulting Employment Index Moderates in December

The Welch Consulting Employment Index returned to 99.6 in December, down from 99.7 in November. Other than in November the Index has been holding steady at 99.6 since August 2016.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 99.6 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is 0.4% below its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 99.0 to 99.6. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 0.6% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 99.3 in June 2016 to 99.6 currently – a small increase of 0.3%. This rate of change over the past 6 months and over the past year is lower than the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.0% increase per year.

The index for women was weaker in December than that for men. Women saw a modest decrease in employment in December, falling 0.2 from 101.9 to 101.7. The index for men held steady at 97.9. The combined index is sitting just off its highest level in over four years, as is the index for men. The index for women is 0.3 points below its October 2016 peak. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 0.4 points and the index for women has risen 0.7 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator var


Welch Consulting Employment Index Holds Steady in November

For the fourth month in a row The Welch Consulting Employment Index held steady at 99.6, which it reached in August, up from 99.4 in July.

The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment after adjustment for population growth and the aging of the workforce. The Index value of 99.6 indicates that adjusted full-time equivalent employment is 0.4% below its level in the base year of 2004.

Over the past 12 months the index has risen from 98.6 to 99.6. The increase in the Index over the past year means that full-time equivalent employment has been growing at a faster rate than the adult population.  Full-time equivalent employment increased 1.0% faster than the adult population over the past year (after making adjustments for the aging of the U.S. adult population). Looking back at the most recent 6 months, the index increased from 99.1 in May 2016 to 99.6 currently – a moderate increase of 0.5%. This rate of change is in line with the overall trend for the last 3 years of about 1.0% increase per year.

The index for women diverged in November from that for men. Women saw a modest decrease in employment in November, falling 0.1 from 102.0 to 101.9. The index for men rose from 97.7 to 97.9. The combined index is sitting at its highest level in over four years. The index for men and the index for men both sit just 0.1 points below their respective recent peaks. For the past 12 months the index for men has risen 1.0 points and the index for women has risen 1.1 points.

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the distribution in the base year of 2004.  Seasonal effects for the share of workers employed in part-time jobs are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.


Welch Consulting Sponsors OCBA Labor & Employment Law Section Holiday Party 2016

Please join Amy Aukstikalnis, Ph.D. as she represents Welch Consulting as a sponsor of the OCBA Holiday Social on Wednesday, December 7th.