The Welch Consulting Employment Index declined slightly, from 97.3 to 97.1, between May and June.  While the headline Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment figures showed substantial job creation and a decline in the unemployment rate in June, full-time employment actually dropped in the past month.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that despite the relatively strong increase in total employment reported by the BLS over the past few months, full-time equivalent employment, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, has not changed since March.

Gains in full-time equivalent employment over the past few months are much smaller than gains in total employment as reported by the BLS because of a shift from full-time to part-time employment.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

The Welch Index now equals 97.1 indicating that full-time equivalent employment is 2.9% below its level in the base year of 2004, after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force.

The Welch Consulting Employment Index dropped sharply for women in June, from 99.3 to 98.8, as the number of women employed in part-time jobs increased by 429,000 while the number of women working full-time fell by 479,000.  The Welch Index for men increased slightly, from 95.7 to 95.9.  The men’s index means that after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force, men’s full-time equivalent employment is 4.1% below its level in the base year of 2004. The women’s index is only 1.2% below its level in 2004.