The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased slightly, from 97.2 to 97.3, between June and July as the official unemployment rate decreased slightly from 6.2% to 6.1%.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, full-time equivalent employment has been roughly constant over the past five months.  The Welch Index is about 1.1% higher than it was one year ago.  In the past year full-time employment has increased by about 2.2 million, while part-time employment has declined by 100,000.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

The Welch Index of 97.3 indicates that full-time equivalent employment is 2.7% below its level in the base year of 2004, after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force.  The index is about 5.4% below its peak in March of 2007.

The Welch Consulting Employment Index for women remained constant at 99.  The Welch Index for men increased from 95.7 to 95.9, as the number of men employed in full-time jobs increased by 320,000 and part-time employment of men decreased by 324,000.  The men’s index remains 6.4% below its peak in the Spring of 2007 while the women’s index is 4.3% below its pre-recession peak.