The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased slightly, from 97.1 to 97.2, between June and July.  While the official unemployment rate increased slightly from 6.1% to 6.2%, full-time employment increased by 285,000 in the household survey in the past month.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, full-time equivalent employment has been steady since March.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

The Welch Index now equals 97.2 indicating that full-time equivalent employment is 2.8% below its level in the base year of 2004, after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force.  This 2.8% difference is equivalent to a deficit of about 6.94 million jobs, relative to 2004.

The Welch Consulting Employment Index rebounded for women in June, from 98.8 to 99, as the number of women employed in full-time jobs increased by 431,000 while the number of women working part-time fell by 383,000.  The Welch Index for men decreased slightly, from 95.9 to 95.7, as the number of men employed in full-time jobs fell by 166,000.  While total employment for men increased, the number of men working part-time increased by 472,000, which accounts for the decline in full-time equivalent employment per adult.  The men’s index indicates that after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force, men’s full-time equivalent employment is 4.3% below its level in the base year of 2004. The women’s index is only 1.0% below its level in 2004.