Welch Consulting

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Welcome to Welch Consulting

For over 30 years, Welch Consulting has assisted clients in matters involving employment practices and complex business litigation. Rigorous analyses with the highest standards of accuracy, clarity and punctuality make Welch Consulting the top choice for the nation’s preeminent law firms and corporations throughout the US.

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The Welch Consulting Employment Index Rebounds Slightly in July, But U.S. Employment is Still 6.9 Million Jobs Short of Pre-Recession Levels
Written by Stephen Bronars
Tuesday, 05 August 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index increased slightly, from 97.1 to 97.2, between June and July.  While the official unemployment rate increased slightly from 6.1% to 6.2%, full-time employment increased by 285,000 in the household survey in the past month.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, full-time equivalent employment has been steady since March.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

The Welch Index now equals 97.2 indicating that full-time equivalent employment is 2.8% below its level in the base year of 2004, after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force.  This 2.8% difference is equivalent to a deficit of about 6.94 million jobs, relative to 2004.

The Welch Consulting Employment Index rebounded for women in June, from 98.8 to 99, as the number of women employed in full-time jobs increased by 431,000 while the number of women working part-time fell by 383,000.  The Welch Index for men decreased slightly, from 95.9 to 95.7, as the number of men employed in full-time jobs fell by 166,000.  While total employment for men increased, the number of men working part-time increased by 472,000, which accounts for the decline in full-time equivalent employment per adult.  The men’s index indicates that after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force, men’s full-time equivalent employment is 4.3% below its level in the base year of 2004. The women’s index is only 1.0% below its level in 2004.

Welch Index_July14 gender diferences

Technical Note

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch Employment Index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the 1997 base year.  The Welch Index adjusts for population growth by fixing total population to its 1997 level.  Seasonal effects are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.

 
The Welch Consulting Employment Index Declines in June due to a Shift to Part-Time Employment
Written by Stephen Bronars
Thursday, 03 July 2014

The Welch Consulting Employment Index declined slightly, from 97.3 to 97.1, between May and June.  While the headline Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment figures showed substantial job creation and a decline in the unemployment rate in June, full-time employment actually dropped in the past month.  The Welch Index measures full-time equivalent employment and shows that despite the relatively strong increase in total employment reported by the BLS over the past few months, full-time equivalent employment, adjusted for population growth and the aging of the workforce, has not changed since March.  Gains in full-time equivalent employment over the past few months are much smaller than gains in total employment as reported by the BLS because of a shift from full-time to part-time employment.  The Welch Index is based on the BLS household survey (the Current Population Survey).

The Welch Index now equals 97.1 indicating that full-time equivalent employment is 2.9% below its level in the base year of 2004, after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force.

The Welch Consulting Employment Index dropped sharply for women in June, from 99.3 to 98.8, as the number of women employed in part-time jobs increased by 429,000 while the number of women working full-time fell by 479,000.  The Welch Index for men increased slightly, from 95.7 to 95.9.  The men’s index means that after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force, men’s full-time equivalent employment is 4.1% below its level in the base year of 2004. The women’s index is only 1.2% below its level in 2004.


Technical Note

Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey.  The Welch Employment Index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the 1997 base year.  The Welch Index adjusts for population growth by fixing total population to its 1997 level.  Seasonal effects are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.