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Written by Stephen Bronars
Monday, 06 May 2013
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The Welch Consulting Employment Index is 95.2 for April 2013, up from 95 in February. The employment index is at its highest level in four years. As noted below, all of the improvement in the index in the past month has been due to employment gains for women. An index value of 95.2 means that full-time equivalent employment (from the BLS household survey) is 4.8% below its level in the base year of 1997, after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force. Full-time employment has grown slightly faster than population over the past year as the Welch Consulting Employment Index increased by 0.5% in the past twelve months.
The Welch Consulting Employment Index, disaggregated by gender, is 92.9 for men and 98.1 for women. The men’s index decreased slightly in the past month but the women’s index increased by 0.5% since March. Of the past year there has been a small gender difference in employment gains. The men’s index increased over the past twelve months by 0.6% while the women’s index increased by 0.5%.
Technical Note
Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey. The Welch Employment Index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the 1997 base year. The Welch Index adjusts for population growth by fixing total population to its 1997 level. Seasonal effects are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.
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The Welch Consulting Employment Index is 95 for March 2013, down from 95.1 in February. The employment index decreased despite the decrease in the U.S. unemployment rate because fewer adults participated in the labor force in March, as a fraction of the total population. An index value of 95 means that full-time equivalent employment (from the BLS household survey) is 5% below its level in the base year of 1997, after adjusting for both population growth and changes in the age distribution of the labor force. Full-time employment has approximately kept pace with population growth over the past year as the Welch Consulting Employment Index increased by 0.1% in the past twelve months.
The Welch Consulting Employment Index, disaggregated by gender, is 93 for men and 97.6 for women. The men’s index increased slightly from February to March while the index for women declined by about 0.2%. The men’s index increased over the past twelve months by 0.5% while the women’s employment index declined by 0.3%.
Technical Note
Technical Note: Full-time equivalent employment equals full-time employment plus one half of part-time employment from the BLS household survey. The Welch Employment Index adjusts for the changing age distribution of the population by fixing the age distribution of adults to the 1997 base year. The Welch Index adjusts for population growth by fixing total population to its 1997 level. Seasonal effects are removed in a regression framework using monthly indicator variables.
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